Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on November 15?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 95¢ · $827 held · ends Nov 15

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$826.52

Combined PnL

-$98.72

Smart Money Entry

85.7¢ → 94.5¢

+10% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$696.07

Total Shares732

Combined PnL+$66.85

Yes2 traders

Total Value$130.44

Total Shares1,863

Combined PnL-$165.57

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 83¢	$442.26	$505.91	+$63.65	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$281.67	$118.37	-$163.3	62% 1165-716 (1881)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91¢	$66.45	$69.33	+$2.88	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 95¢	$24.19	$24.19	+$0	59% 827-567 (1394)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 93¢	$21.32	$21.77	+$0.46	42% 1670-2304 (3974)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 95¢	$17.2	$17.2	+$0	47% 852-950 (1802)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.7¢	$72.25	$15.4	+$3.32	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 94¢	$14.84	$15	+$0.16	31% 1097-2456 (3553)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$14.34	$12.07	-$2.27	42% 754-1062 (1816)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.5	$9.5	+$0	38% 306-501 (807)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 95¢	$8.71	$8.71	+$0	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 95¢	$5.73	$5.73	+$0	52% 865-790 (1655)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 95¢	$87.4	$3.33	-$3.62	17% 92-444 (536)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$442.26

Value

$505.91

PnL

+$63.65

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$281.67

Value

$118.37

PnL

-$163.3

Record

62%

1165-716 (1881)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$66.45

Value

$69.33

PnL

+$2.88

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$24.19

Value

$24.19

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$21.32

Value

$21.77

PnL

+$0.46

Record

42%

1670-2304 (3974)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

$17.2

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$72.25

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$3.32

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$14.84

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.16

Record

31%

1097-2456 (3553)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.34

Value

$12.07

PnL

-$2.27

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

306-501 (807)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$8.71

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.73

Value

$5.73

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

merod<$100

Invested

$87.4

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$3.62

Record

17%

92-444 (536)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.