Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on November 15?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $178 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$178.02

Combined PnL

-$24.99

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$177.9

Total Shares178

Combined PnL+$0.09

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.12

Total Shares237

Combined PnL-$25.08

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$159.84	$159.92	+$0.08	98% 1504-23 (1527)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.65	$9.66	+$0	31% 1097-2456 (3553)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.32	$8.33	+$0	42% 1670-2304 (3974)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.05	$0.04	-$8	17% 92-444 (536)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.18	$0.03	-$6.15	25% 580-1695 (2275)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.67	$0.02	-$3.65	34% 329-653 (982)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.91	$0.01	-$1.9	24% 752-2355 (3107)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.01	$0.01	-$1	35% 3858-7089 (10947)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.43	$0	-$4.38	34% 303-590 (893)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$159.84

Value

$159.92

PnL

+$0.08

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.65

Value

$9.66

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

1097-2456 (3553)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$8.32

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1670-2304 (3974)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.05

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8

Record

17%

92-444 (536)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.18

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.15

Record

25%

580-1695 (2275)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.67

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.65

Record

34%

329-653 (982)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.9

Record

24%

752-2355 (3107)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1

Record

35%

3858-7089 (10947)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.43

Value

PnL

-$4.38

Record

34%

303-590 (893)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.