Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on November 15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $144 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$143.51

Combined PnL

-$91.56

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$143.05

Total Shares143

Combined PnL+$3.61

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.46

Total Shares925

Combined PnL-$95.16

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$79.63	$79.75	+$0.12	98% 1504-23 (1527)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$51.49	$54.97	+$3.48	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.32	$8.33	+$0	30% 1151-2701 (3852)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$70.09	$0.32	-$69.77	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.05	$0.04	-$8	17% 92-444 (536)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.18	$0.03	-$6.15	25% 580-1695 (2275)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.43	$0.02	-$4.4	34% 303-590 (893)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.96	$0.02	-$3.94	34% 329-653 (982)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.91	$0.01	-$1.9	24% 752-2355 (3107)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.01	$0.01	-$1	35% 3858-7089 (10947)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.63

Value

$79.75

PnL

+$0.12

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$51.49

Value

$54.97

PnL

+$3.48

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$8.32

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

1151-2701 (3852)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.09

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$69.77

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.05

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8

Record

17%

92-444 (536)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.18

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.15

Record

25%

580-1695 (2275)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.43

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.4

Record

34%

303-590 (893)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.96

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.94

Record

34%

329-653 (982)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.9

Record

24%

752-2355 (3107)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1

Record

35%

3858-7089 (10947)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.