Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on November 14?
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $175 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 33%
$175.13
-$40.8
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $124.86 | $124.94 | +$0.08 | 31% 221-498 (719) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 30% 187-428 (615) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.99 | +$0.03 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $21.08 | $0.12 | -$20.96 | 27% 42-113 (155) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.55 | $0.05 | -$9.49 | 29% 1059-2631 (3690) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.91 | $0.03 | -$5.87 | 45% 4955-6107 (11062) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.81 | $0.01 | -$2.53 | 36% 3613-6424 (10037) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.91 | $0.01 | -$0.9 | 29% 3079-7466 (10545) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.18 | $0 | -$1.17 | 37% 1467-2446 (3913) |
Invested
$124.86
Value
$124.94
PnL
+$0.08
Record
31%
221-498 (719)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
30%
187-428 (615)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
Invested
$21.08
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$20.96
Record
27%
42-113 (155)
Invested
$9.55
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$9.49
Record
29%
1059-2631 (3690)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$5.91
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$5.87
Record
45%
4955-6107 (11062)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$9.81
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.53
Record
36%
3613-6424 (10037)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.9
Record
29%
3079-7466 (10545)
Invested
$1.18
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.17
Record
37%
1467-2446 (3913)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.