Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $316 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$315.58

Combined PnL

-$6.15

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99.3¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$312.8

Total Shares314

Combined PnL-$5.34

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2

Total Shares285

Combined PnL-$0.82

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 98.8¢	$123.5	$124.37	+$0.87	34% 240-466 (706)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$59.12	$59.7	+$0.58	29% 237-570 (807)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$60.12	$40.28	-$7.88	44% 5060-6556 (11616)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$29.22	$29.85	+$0.63	34% 268-522 (790)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$27.74	$28.23	+$0.49	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$25.39	$25.34	-$0.05	58% 692-501 (1193)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5	$5.02	+$0.03	50% 704-694 (1398)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$1.55	$1.02	-$0.54	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.26	$0.98	-$0.28	40% 633-964 (1597)

god83743894

Invested

$123.5

Value

$124.37

PnL

+$0.87

Record

34%

240-466 (706)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$59.12

Value

$59.7

PnL

+$0.58

Record

29%

237-570 (807)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$60.12

Value

$40.28

PnL

-$7.88

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.22

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$0.63

Record

34%

268-522 (790)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$27.74

Value

$28.23

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$25.39

Value

$25.34

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.54

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.26

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.28

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.