Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on November 14?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 85¢ · $854 held · ends Nov 14

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$853.73

Combined PnL

-$227.9

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 85¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$654.05

Total Shares902

Combined PnL-$135.67

Yes4 traders

Total Value$199.68

Total Shares1,264

Combined PnL-$92.23

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 88.7¢	$499.38	$405.36	-$94.02	62% 1124-676 (1800)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$254.81	$159.43	-$95.38	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 83.4¢	$104.25	$90	-$14.25	27% 197-540 (737)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 86.1¢	$90.45	$75.6	-$14.85	27% 973-2599 (3572)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 89¢	$26.7	$21.6	-$5.1	31% 221-498 (719)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 74¢	$20.98	$20.43	-$0.55	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 72¢	$385.5	$19.66	-$5.84	56% 1073-841 (1914)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$148.32	$17.35	+$23.45	27% 42-113 (155)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 24.8¢	$142.5	$13.04	-$13.22	38% 543-874 (1417)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87¢	$21.9	$10.98	-$0.05	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 79¢	$11.43	$10.42	-$1.01	73% 778-291 (1069)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$28	$9.87	-$7.08	30% 108-251 (359)

vibing123

Invested

$499.38

Value

$405.36

PnL

-$94.02

Record

62%

1124-676 (1800)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$254.81

Value

$159.43

PnL

-$95.38

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

smallreceipt

Invested

$104.25

Value

$90

PnL

-$14.25

Record

27%

197-540 (737)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$90.45

Value

$75.6

PnL

-$14.85

Record

27%

973-2599 (3572)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$26.7

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$5.1

Record

31%

221-498 (719)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$20.98

Value

$20.43

PnL

-$0.55

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$385.5

Value

$19.66

PnL

-$5.84

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$148.32

Value

$17.35

PnL

+$23.45

Record

27%

42-113 (155)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$142.5

Value

$13.04

PnL

-$13.22

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.9

Value

$10.98

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$11.43

Value

$10.42

PnL

-$1.01

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28

Value

$9.87

PnL

-$7.08

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.