Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on November 14?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 47¢ · $868 held · ends Nov 14

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$867.67

Combined PnL

$140.7

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 47¢

-7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$599.96

Total Shares1,278

Combined PnL-$43.97

Yes5 traders

Total Value$267.71

Total Shares434

Combined PnL+$184.67

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Noavg 53.2¢	$350.73	$305.42	-$45.31	62% 1124-676 (1800)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 49.4¢	$126.61	$113.28	-$3.68	30% 108-251 (359)
DO donthackme	Yesavg 9.1¢	$48.27	$103.58	+$121	27% 42-113 (155)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 53.8¢	$85.86	$102.12	+$16.26	56% 1073-841 (1914)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$57.81	$59.65	+$1.84	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 44.7¢	$55.85	$57.93	+$2.08	27% 973-2599 (3572)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 46.2¢	$348.63	$44.04	+$32.07	38% 543-874 (1417)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$36.75	$34.76	-$1.99	27% 197-540 (737)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 49.4¢	$11.53	$14.94	+$3.41	73% 778-291 (1069)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 45.7¢	$13.7	$13.9	+$0.2	29% 185-443 (628)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 42.8¢	$24.95	$11.13	+$3.02	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$4.02	$3.88	-$0.14	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.59	$3.04	+$11.92	36% 3613-6424 (10037)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$350.73

Value

$305.42

PnL

-$45.31

Record

62%

1124-676 (1800)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$126.61

Value

$113.28

PnL

-$3.68

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

donthackme

Yes

Invested

$48.27

Value

$103.58

PnL

+$121

Record

27%

42-113 (155)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$85.86

Value

$102.12

PnL

+$16.26

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$57.81

Value

$59.65

PnL

+$1.84

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$55.85

Value

$57.93

PnL

+$2.08

Record

27%

973-2599 (3572)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$348.63

Value

$44.04

PnL

+$32.07

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$36.75

Value

$34.76

PnL

-$1.99

Record

27%

197-540 (737)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.53

Value

$14.94

PnL

+$3.41

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$13.7

Value

$13.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

29%

185-443 (628)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$24.95

Value

$11.13

PnL

+$3.02

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$4.02

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.59

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$11.92

Record

36%

3613-6424 (10037)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.