Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on November 14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 11¢ · $348 held · ends Nov 14

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$347.87

Combined PnL

-$223.56

Smart Money Entry

29.9¢ → 11¢

-63% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$257.56

Total Shares1,693

Combined PnL-$251.62

No5 traders

Total Value$89.86

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$28.06

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 30.3¢	$483.65	$239.4	-$244.25	62% 1127-679 (1806)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 87¢	$26.1	$25.5	-$0.6	33% 220-451 (671)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$23.51	$24.11	+$0.6	53% 6903-6063 (12966)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$16.35	$17.91	+$1.56	72% 829-328 (1157)
24 241532532432	Noavg 66.7¢	$166.15	$17.85	+$26.3	40% 625-948 (1573)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.2¢	$43.64	$9.38	+$0.2	53% 1598-1443 (3041)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.7¢	$62.48	$8.02	-$7.47	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.29	$4.49	+$0.2	63% 716-429 (1145)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.86	$0.76	-$0.1	65% 4292-2315 (6607)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$483.65

Value

$239.4

PnL

-$244.25

Record

62%

1127-679 (1806)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$26.1

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$0.6

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$23.51

Value

$24.11

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

6903-6063 (12966)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$16.35

Value

$17.91

PnL

+$1.56

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

241532532432

Invested

$166.15

Value

$17.85

PnL

+$26.3

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.64

Value

$9.38

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.48

Value

$8.02

PnL

-$7.47

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.29

Value

$4.49

PnL

+$0.2

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$0.1

Record

65%

4292-2315 (6607)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.