Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on November 14?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 99¢ · $348 held · ends Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$348.48

Combined PnL

-$5.2

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 98.8¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$347.3

Total Shares349

Combined PnL-$5.66

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.18

Total Shares62

Combined PnL+$0.46

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 98.8¢	$153.08	$124.15	-$1.64	30% 1031-2401 (3432)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 98.2¢	$103.12	$104.29	+$1.17	33% 225-451 (676)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$29.55	$29.8	+$0.25	28% 1016-2624 (3640)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$27.93	$28.18	+$0.24	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$55.41	$26.09	-$6.08	44% 5060-6556 (11616)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$25.29	$25.21	-$0.07	51% 790-758 (1548)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$4.98	$5.02	+$0.04	46% 1081-1285 (2366)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$14.19	$4.57	+$0.44	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.72	$1.18	+$0.46	62% 1129-683 (1812)

mildwindow27

Invested

$153.08

Value

$124.15

PnL

-$1.64

Record

30%

1031-2401 (3432)

quietparcel

Invested

$103.12

Value

$104.29

PnL

+$1.17

Record

33%

225-451 (676)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.55

Value

$29.8

PnL

+$0.25

Record

28%

1016-2624 (3640)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$27.93

Value

$28.18

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$55.41

Value

$26.09

PnL

-$6.08

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$25.29

Value

$25.21

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

790-758 (1548)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.04

Record

46%

1081-1285 (2366)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.19

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$0.44

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

vibing123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.46

Record

62%

1129-683 (1812)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.