Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on November 14?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $155 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$155.07

Combined PnL

-$43.5

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$154.92

Total Shares155

Combined PnL+$0.35

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.15

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$43.85

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 99.7¢	$124.63	$124.94	+$0.31	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.95	$29.99	+$0.04	29% 232-564 (796)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.27	$0.07	-$12.21	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.91	$0.03	-$5.87	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$188.48	$0.02	-$20.7	25% 45-135 (180)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.55	$0.01	-$2.53	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.18	$0.01	-$1.18	37% 1518-2567 (4085)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	29% 3160-7828 (10988)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	51% 746-711 (1457)

haveagoodday

Invested

$124.63

Value

$124.94

PnL

+$0.31

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.95

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.04

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.27

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$12.21

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.87

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$188.48

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$20.7

Record

25%

45-135 (180)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.53

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.18

Record

37%

1518-2567 (4085)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

29%

3160-7828 (10988)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.