Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be 61°F or below on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $180 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$180.13

Combined PnL

-$50.78

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$179.86

Total Shares180

Combined PnL+$0.09

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.27

Total Shares533

Combined PnL-$50.87

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.95	+$0.05	99% 1213-13 (1226)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.87	$79.91	+$0.04	33% 220-451 (671)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.08	$0.12	-$20.96	25% 45-135 (180)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$46.34	$0.09	-$18.98	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.91	$0.03	-$5.87	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.55	$0.01	-$2.53	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.18	$0.01	-$1.18	37% 1518-2567 (4085)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	29% 3160-7828 (10988)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	51% 746-711 (1457)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$79.87

Value

$79.91

PnL

+$0.04

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.08

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$20.96

Record

25%

45-135 (180)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.34

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$18.98

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.87

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.53

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.18

Record

37%

1518-2567 (4085)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

29%

3160-7828 (10988)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.