Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on November 13?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $152 held · ended Nov 13

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$152.33

Combined PnL

-$11.34

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 98.8¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$138.77

Total Shares142

Combined PnL-$1.32

Yes4 traders

Total Value$13.55

Total Shares288

Combined PnL-$10.03

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$69.23	$54.27	+$0.51	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$53.53	$52.62	-$0.91	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$37.41	$29.35	-$0.94	29% 630-1570 (2200)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.8¢	$15.6	$11.89	-$3.71	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$2.5	$2.52	+$0.02	99% 1095-12 (1107)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$46.12	$1.33	+$0.21	39% 579-908 (1487)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.72	$0.2	-$6.43	31% 114-255 (369)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.23	$0.13	-$0.1	30% 189-443 (632)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$69.23

Value

$54.27

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$53.53

Value

$52.62

PnL

-$0.91

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$37.41

Value

$29.35

PnL

-$0.94

Record

29%

630-1570 (2200)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.6

Value

$11.89

PnL

-$3.71

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

99%

1095-12 (1107)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.12

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.21

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.72

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$6.43

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.1

Record

30%

189-443 (632)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.