Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $534 held · ended Nov 13

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$534.17

Combined PnL

-$43.44

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 97¢

+19% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$520.09

Total Shares563

Combined PnL-$22.81

Yes2 traders

Total Value$14.07

Total Shares141

Combined PnL-$20.63

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 83.8¢	$401.1	$270.84	-$39.74	39% 579-908 (1487)
BI Bilberry	Noavg 75¢	$124	$140.53	+$16.53	40% 32-49 (81)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$45.5	$47.25	+$1.75	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 93¢	$35.05	$28.05	+$0.37	29% 630-1570 (2200)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$28.05	$27.64	-$0.41	73% 795-298 (1093)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 22.7¢	$390	$13.67	-$23.94	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88¢	$10.38	$5.77	-$1.32	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$124.43	$0.39	+$3.31	31% 114-255 (369)

241532532432

Invested

$401.1

Value

$270.84

PnL

-$39.74

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

Bilberry

Invested

$124

Value

$140.53

PnL

+$16.53

Record

40%

32-49 (81)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$45.5

Value

$47.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$35.05

Value

$28.05

PnL

+$0.37

Record

29%

630-1570 (2200)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$28.05

Value

$27.64

PnL

-$0.41

Record

73%

795-298 (1093)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$390

Value

$13.67

PnL

-$23.94

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.38

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$1.32

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.43

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$3.31

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.