Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 13?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 84¢ · $799 held · ended Nov 13

Yes84¢No16¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$798.77

Combined PnL

$169.25

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 83.5¢

+106% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$603.08

Total Shares1,045

Combined PnL+$219.59

No7 traders

Total Value$195.09

Total Shares425

Combined PnL-$50.34

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 36.4¢	$416.97	$306.41	+$73.54	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 48.6¢	$274.68	$287.84	+$145.79	38% 543-874 (1417)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR	Noavg 66.2¢	$165.77	$122.72	-$43.05	71% 76-31 (107)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 58.7¢	$64	$53.45	-$10.55	39% 31-48 (79)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$11.2	$9.8	-$1.4	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 43.7¢	$22.95	$8.83	+$0.26	73% 778-291 (1069)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 32.4¢	$12.13	$4.54	-$4.66	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$2.64	$2.48	+$8.93	29% 3079-7466 (10545)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$1.08	$1.15	+$0.08	30% 612-1455 (2067)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$0.63	$0.93	+$0.31	37% 165-281 (446)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$416.97

Value

$306.41

PnL

+$73.54

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$274.68

Value

$287.84

PnL

+$145.79

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR

Invested

$165.77

Value

$122.72

PnL

-$43.05

Record

71%

76-31 (107)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$64

Value

$53.45

PnL

-$10.55

Record

39%

31-48 (79)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$1.4

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.95

Value

$8.83

PnL

+$0.26

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$12.13

Value

$4.54

PnL

-$4.66

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$8.93

Record

29%

3079-7466 (10545)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.08

Record

30%

612-1455 (2067)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.31

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.