Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on November 13?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 64¢ · $503 held · ends Nov 13

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$503.06

Combined PnL

$50.4

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 63.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$378.96

Total Shares590

Combined PnL+$42.77

Yes3 traders

Total Value$124.1

Total Shares337

Combined PnL+$7.63

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 62.3¢	$288.09	$236.76	+$36.19	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 62.6¢	$93.07	$95.11	+$2.04	35% 414-754 (1168)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.6¢	$71.33	$76.39	+$5.06	58% 1038-744 (1782)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.3¢	$41.54	$44.17	+$2.63	32% 19-41 (60)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 64¢	$34.69	$23.86	+$4.02	37% 3468-5985 (9453)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 63¢	$12.6	$12.6	+$0	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 59.9¢	$10.1	$10.62	+$0.52	76% 675-216 (891)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$3.6	$3.55	-$0.05	53% 925-815 (1740)

hello.67

Invested

$288.09

Value

$236.76

PnL

+$36.19

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$93.07

Value

$95.11

PnL

+$2.04

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.33

Value

$76.39

PnL

+$5.06

Record

58%

1038-744 (1782)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.54

Value

$44.17

PnL

+$2.63

Record

32%

19-41 (60)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$34.69

Value

$23.86

PnL

+$4.02

Record

37%

3468-5985 (9453)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$12.6

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.1

Value

$10.62

PnL

+$0.52

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.