Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $213 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$212.55
-$0.24
99.7¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $74.78 | $74.55 | -$0.23 | 26% 863-2483 (3346) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $66.77 | $66.8 | +$0.03 | 38% 3321-5397 (8718) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.91 | -$0 | 27% 939-2515 (3454) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.94 | -$0 | 53% 5757-5140 (10897) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $16.42 | $16.37 | -$0.05 | 51% 4732-4556 (9288) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $4.98 | $4.98 | +$0 | 31% 2830-6233 (9063) |
Invested
$74.78
Value
$74.55
PnL
-$0.23
Record
26%
863-2483 (3346)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$66.77
Value
$66.8
PnL
+$0.03
Record
38%
3321-5397 (8718)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0
Record
27%
939-2515 (3454)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.94
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
5757-5140 (10897)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16.42
Value
$16.37
PnL
-$0.05
Record
51%
4732-4556 (9288)
Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.98
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
2830-6233 (9063)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.