Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on November 12?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 98¢ · $143 held · ends Nov 12

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$142.77

Combined PnL

$3.79

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 98¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$128.57

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$0.75

Yes2 traders

Total Value$14.2

Total Shares568

Combined PnL+$3.04

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$65.86	$66.26	+$0.4	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$29.42	$29.67	+$0.25	29% 882-2138 (3020)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$19.78	$19.78	+$0	53% 5667-5092 (10759)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$9.78	$11.9	+$2.12	68% 2064-954 (3018)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$7.87	$7.91	+$0.04	39% 1297-2005 (3302)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$4.88	$4.95	+$0.07	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.38	$2.3	+$0.92	32% 290-625 (915)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$65.86

Value

$66.26

PnL

+$0.4

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.42

Value

$29.67

PnL

+$0.25

Record

29%

882-2138 (3020)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.78

Value

$19.78

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5667-5092 (10759)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.78

Value

$11.9

PnL

+$2.12

Record

68%

2064-954 (3018)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$7.87

Value

$7.91

PnL

+$0.04

Record

39%

1297-2005 (3302)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.07

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.92

Record

32%

290-625 (915)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.