Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $59 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$59.09
$0.68
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $24.64 | $24.9 | +$0.26 | 19% 58-241 (299) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $22.14 | $22.41 | +$0.27 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 83.3¢ | $6.67 | $6.64 | -$0.03 | 39% 1250-1994 (3244) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4.15 | -$0 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $0.81 | $0.99 | +$0.17 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
Invested
$24.64
Value
$24.9
PnL
+$0.26
Record
19%
58-241 (299)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$22.14
Value
$22.41
PnL
+$0.27
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$6.67
Value
$6.64
PnL
-$0.03
Record
39%
1250-1994 (3244)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.15
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$0.81
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.17
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.