Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on November 12?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 33¢ · $151 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$150.61
-$10.82
Research grade
NeutralYes at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 34.5¢ | $111.68 | $100.27 | -$11.41 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 65.9¢ | $19.77 | $20.07 | +$0.3 | 26% 898-2508 (3406) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 68.2¢ | $13.64 | $13.38 | -$0.26 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 64.7¢ | $11.15 | $11.54 | +$0.39 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 64.8¢ | $5.18 | $5.35 | +$0.17 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
Invested
$111.68
Value
$100.27
PnL
-$11.41
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$19.77
Value
$20.07
PnL
+$0.3
Record
26%
898-2508 (3406)
Invested
$13.64
Value
$13.38
PnL
-$0.26
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$11.15
Value
$11.54
PnL
+$0.39
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$5.35
PnL
+$0.17
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.