Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 71¢ · $202 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$201.68
$28.6
58.9¢ → 71¢
+21% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 56¢ | $123.18 | $151.77 | +$28.59 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 61.1¢ | $18.33 | $20.7 | +$2.37 | 21% 75-278 (353) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 76.4¢ | $20.63 | $18.63 | -$2 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 61.1¢ | $4.89 | $5.52 | +$0.63 | 39% 1250-1994 (3244) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 76.3¢ | $3.82 | $3.45 | -$0.36 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.1¢ | $2.24 | $1.61 | -$0.63 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
Invested
$123.18
Value
$151.77
PnL
+$28.59
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$18.33
Value
$20.7
PnL
+$2.37
Record
21%
75-278 (353)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$20.63
Value
$18.63
PnL
-$2
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$4.89
Value
$5.52
PnL
+$0.63
Record
39%
1250-1994 (3244)
Invested
$3.82
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$0.36
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$2.24
Value
$1.61
PnL
-$0.63
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.