Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$126
$1.66
95.5¢ → 96¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $65.17 | $64.29 | -$0.89 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $27.27 | $29.38 | +$2.11 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $19.58 | $19.19 | -$0.39 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $7.27 | $7.83 | +$0.56 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $4.83 | $4.9 | +$0.07 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $0.22 | $0.42 | +$0.19 | 54% 553-469 (1022) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$65.17
Value
$64.29
PnL
-$0.89
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$27.27
Value
$29.38
PnL
+$2.11
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$19.58
Value
$19.19
PnL
-$0.39
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
Invested
$7.27
Value
$7.83
PnL
+$0.56
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
Invested
$4.83
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.07
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.42
PnL
+$0.19
Record
54%
553-469 (1022)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.