Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $220 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$219.71
-$0.26
99.3¢ → 99.1¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $74.46 | $74.33 | -$0.13 | 25% 81-244 (325) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $66.62 | $66.52 | -$0.1 | 38% 3321-5397 (8718) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.78 | +$0.08 | 40% 1461-2159 (3620) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.86 | -$0.08 | 53% 5757-5140 (10897) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $16.38 | $16.32 | -$0.06 | 51% 4732-4556 (9288) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $7.92 | $7.94 | +$0.02 | 40% 1341-2015 (3356) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $4.96 | +$0.01 | 31% 2830-6233 (9063) |
Invested
$74.46
Value
$74.33
PnL
-$0.13
Record
25%
81-244 (325)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$66.62
Value
$66.52
PnL
-$0.1
Record
38%
3321-5397 (8718)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.78
PnL
+$0.08
Record
40%
1461-2159 (3620)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.86
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
5757-5140 (10897)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16.38
Value
$16.32
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
4732-4556 (9288)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$7.94
PnL
+$0.02
Record
40%
1341-2015 (3356)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.96
PnL
+$0.01
Record
31%
2830-6233 (9063)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.