Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 74¢ · $44 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$44.04
$1.59
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $22.77 | $23.76 | +$0.99 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $8.87 | $9.18 | +$0.32 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $5.52 | $5.76 | +$0.24 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $3.69 | $3.72 | +$0.02 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $1.6 | $1.62 | +$0.02 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$22.77
Value
$23.76
PnL
+$0.99
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$8.87
Value
$9.18
PnL
+$0.32
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$5.76
PnL
+$0.24
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$3.69
Value
$3.72
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.62
PnL
+$0.02
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.