Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 38¢ · $26 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$26.16
-$1.48
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $13.77 | $12.48 | -$1.29 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $4.79 | $4.87 | +$0.08 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $4.94 | $4.81 | -$0.13 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $3.28 | $3.12 | -$0.16 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $0.85 | $0.87 | +$0.02 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$13.77
Value
$12.48
PnL
-$1.29
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$4.87
PnL
+$0.08
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$4.81
PnL
-$0.13
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$3.12
PnL
-$0.16
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.87
PnL
+$0.02
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.