Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $112 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$112.3
$0.17
99.2¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $44.78 | $44.66 | -$0.11 | 27% 499-1343 (1842) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $32.34 | $32.42 | +$0.08 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $19.78 | $19.9 | +$0.12 | 35% 2930-5331 (8261) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $13.02 | $13.08 | +$0.07 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $2.22 | $2.23 | +$0.01 | 29% 2470-6157 (8627) |
Invested
$44.78
Value
$44.66
PnL
-$0.11
Record
27%
499-1343 (1842)
Invested
$32.34
Value
$32.42
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.78
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$0.12
Record
35%
2930-5331 (8261)
Invested
$13.02
Value
$13.08
PnL
+$0.07
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$2.22
Value
$2.23
PnL
+$0.01
Record
29%
2470-6157 (8627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.