Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $87 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$87.08
-$9.92
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.2¢ | $55.56 | $43.94 | -$11.63 | 24% 158-513 (671) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $17.38 | $17.96 | +$0.59 | 86% 438-72 (510) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $10.39 | $10.39 | +$0 | 52% 5313-4817 (10130) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $8.94 | $9.84 | +$0.9 | 51% 256-247 (503) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $4.73 | $4.95 | +$0.22 | 79% 170-44 (214) |
Invested
$55.56
Value
$43.94
PnL
-$11.63
Record
24%
158-513 (671)
Invested
$17.38
Value
$17.96
PnL
+$0.59
Record
86%
438-72 (510)
Invested
$10.39
Value
$10.39
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
5313-4817 (10130)
Invested
$8.94
Value
$9.84
PnL
+$0.9
Record
51%
256-247 (503)
Invested
$4.73
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.22
Record
79%
170-44 (214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.