Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $197 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$196.94
$30.52
81.5¢ → 97¢
+19% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $138.97 | $167.81 | +$28.84 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $11.08 | $11.08 | +$0 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 78.3¢ | $8.36 | $10.36 | +$2 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $4.9 | $5.28 | +$0.38 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $9.1 | $2.41 | -$0.69 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
Invested
$138.97
Value
$167.81
PnL
+$28.84
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$11.08
Value
$11.08
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$8.36
Value
$10.36
PnL
+$2
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.28
PnL
+$0.38
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$2.41
PnL
-$0.69
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.