Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 10?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $39 held · ended Nov 10

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$38.56

Combined PnL

$0.43

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$38.56

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$0.43

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$12.96	$13.19	+$0.23	51% 263-254 (517)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$11.31	$11.35	+$0.05	52% 5320-4824 (10144)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$5.33	$5.41	+$0.08	79% 177-47 (224)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$4.89	$4.97	+$0.08	24% 163-516 (679)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	100% 95-0 (95)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$1.15	$1.14	-$0.01	28% 2449-6153 (8602)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.96

Value

$13.19

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

263-254 (517)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11.31

Value

$11.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.41

PnL

+$0.08

Record

79%

177-47 (224)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.08

Record

24%

163-516 (679)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

100%

95-0 (95)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.01

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.