Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on October 30?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 79¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$143.11

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$727.58

Total Shares921

Combined PnL+$56.4

No3 traders

Total Value$179.3

Total Shares398

Combined PnL+$86.72

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 72.9¢	$671.18	$727.58	+$56.4	47% 628-714 (1342)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 74.7¢	$479.02	$474	-$4.77	21% 295-1086 (1381)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74.7¢	$353.96	$260.7	-$93.26
└ No leg	Noavg 26.3¢	$124.79	$213.3	+$88.5
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Noavg 22.7¢	$52.12	$103.44	+$51.32	56% 357-286 (643)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 23.4¢	$31.6	$60.75	+$29.15	61% 20932-13324 (34256)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$14.47	$15.12	+$6.25	53% 6459-5657 (12116)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$671.18

Value

$727.58

PnL

+$56.4

Record

47%

628-714 (1342)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$479.02

Value

$474

PnL

-$4.77

Record

21%

295-1086 (1381)

Both legs:

Yes$353.9674.7¢-$93.26

No$124.7926.3¢+$88.5

HellYeahTraderCTR

Invested

$52.12

Value

$103.44

PnL

+$51.32

Record

56%

357-286 (643)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$31.6

Value

$60.75

PnL

+$29.15

Record

61%

20932-13324 (34256)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$14.47

Value

$15.12

PnL

+$6.25

Record

53%

6459-5657 (12116)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.