Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on October 29?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 35¢ · $295 held · ends Oct 29

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$295.19

Combined PnL

$53.95

Smart Money Entry

24.9¢ → 35¢

+40% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$207.8

Total Shares630

Combined PnL+$50.71

No3 traders

Total Value$87.39

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$3.25

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 24.6¢	$134.56	$180.26	+$45.7	46% 574-661 (1235)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$43.59	$44.84	+$1.25	52% 4911-4508 (9419)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 63¢	$31.55	$33.55	+$2	73% 8237-3091 (11328)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$22.54	$27.55	+$5.01	50% 1640-1625 (3265)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 74¢	$9.09	$9	-$0.01	29% 280-697 (977)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$134.56

Value

$180.26

PnL

+$45.7

Record

46%

574-661 (1235)

korda77<$100

Invested

$43.59

Value

$44.84

PnL

+$1.25

Record

52%

4911-4508 (9419)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$31.55

Value

$33.55

PnL

+$2

Record

73%

8237-3091 (11328)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.54

Value

$27.55

PnL

+$5.01

Record

50%

1640-1625 (3265)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$9.09

Value

PnL

-$0.01

Record

29%

280-697 (977)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.