Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on October 28?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 43¢ · $745 held · ended Oct 28

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$744.81

Combined PnL

-$7.03

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 42.5¢

-10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$104.87

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$7.03

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Noavg 48.5¢	$394.88	$459.97	+$65.09	46% 584-672 (1256)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.5¢	$199.65	$255.3	+$55.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.2¢	$195.24	$204.67	+$9.44
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 59.5¢	$284.3	$179.97	-$13.26	27% 281-776 (1057)
└ No leg	Noavg 59.5¢	$107.12	$100.78	-$5.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.8¢	$86.06	$79.19	-$8.02
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$43.56	$44.55	+$0.99	54% 267-225 (492)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.9¢	$41.72	$36.09	-$5.63	50% 1654-1642 (3296)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 47.3¢	$12.05	$8.47	-$0.76	57% 13139-10016 (23155)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$8.02	$8.02	+$0	53% 6327-5543 (11870)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$9.37	$7.74	-$1.63	60% 1599-1049 (2648)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Invested

$394.88

Value

$459.97

PnL

+$65.09

Record

46%

584-672 (1256)

Both legs:

No$199.6548.5¢+$55.65

Yes$195.2436.2¢+$9.44

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$284.3

Value

$179.97

PnL

-$13.26

Record

27%

281-776 (1057)

Both legs:

No$107.1259.5¢-$5.24

Yes$86.0647.8¢-$8.02

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.56

Value

$44.55

PnL

+$0.99

Record

54%

267-225 (492)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.72

Value

$36.09

PnL

-$5.63

Record

50%

1654-1642 (3296)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.05

Value

$8.47

PnL

-$0.76

Record

57%

13139-10016 (23155)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.02

Value

$8.02

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6327-5543 (11870)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.37

Value

$7.74

PnL

-$1.63

Record

60%

1599-1049 (2648)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.