Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on October 28?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 55¢ · $923 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$923
$13.35
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $501.79 | $537.72 | +$35.93 | 46% 547-632 (1179) |
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 58.1¢ | $357.57 | $208.4 | -$42.2 | 35% 273-515 (788) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 46.1¢ | $82.04 | $98.87 | +$16.83 | 61% 1506-947 (2453) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.5¢ | $74.63 | $77.4 | +$2.77 | 61% 20465-12833 (33298) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $0.69 | $0.7 | +$0.02 | 57% 12861-9776 (22637) |
Invested
$501.79
Value
$537.72
PnL
+$35.93
Record
46%
547-632 (1179)
IstarothCTRInvested
$357.57
Value
$208.4
PnL
-$42.2
Record
35%
273-515 (788)
Invested
$82.04
Value
$98.87
PnL
+$16.83
Record
61%
1506-947 (2453)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$74.63
Value
$77.4
PnL
+$2.77
Record
61%
20465-12833 (33298)
Invested
$0.69
Value
$0.7
PnL
+$0.02
Record
57%
12861-9776 (22637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.