Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on November 8?

17 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 51¢ · $787 held · ended Nov 8

Yes50¢No50¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 94%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$787.27

Combined PnL

$84

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 50.5¢

-15% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 18 top traders (94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$541.61

Total Shares821

Combined PnL+$82.3

Yes1 trader

Total Value$22.31

Total Shares69

Combined PnL+$1.7

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryARB<$100	Yesavg 25.4¢	$184.99	$223.36	+$40.53	53% 4150-3716 (7866)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.4¢	$107.5	$137.45	+$29.95
└ No leg	Noavg 60.9¢	$77.49	$85.9	+$10.58
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 50.1¢	$85.55	$127.19	+$41.64	37% 913-1562 (2475)
balthazar	Noavg 57.5¢	$120.7	$80.42	+$26.57	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 57.3¢	$89.84	$80.06	+$53.17	60% 18915-12738 (31653)
Istaroth	Noavg 58.3¢	$274.34	$75.69	-$12.33	13% 603-4221 (4824)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 67¢	$51.56	$51.56	+$0	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 69.6¢	$38.38	$27.56	-$10.82	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$20.61	$22.31	+$1.7	26% 2319-6715 (9034)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	No	$20.66	$20.66	+$0	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$28.09	$17.7	-$0.69	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 71.3¢	$22.11	$15.51	-$6.6	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 65.5¢	$15.06	$11.62	-$3.44	54% 10777-9308 (20085)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Noavg 63¢	$12.6	$10.1	-$2.5	62% 697-436 (1133)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 70¢	$8.68	$8.18	-$0.5	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 56.6¢	$4	$3.54	-$0.46	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$3.65	$3.31	-$0.34	35% 1022-1939 (2961)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$3.32	$3.3	-$0.02	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 65.3¢	$3.39	$2.62	-$0.77	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 70.3¢	$42.18	$2.59	-$0.62	39% 1311-2070 (3381)

BilberryARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$184.99

Value

$223.36

PnL

+$40.53

Record

53%

4150-3716 (7866)

Both legs:

Yes$107.525.4¢+$29.95

No$77.4960.9¢+$10.58

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$85.55

Value

$127.19

PnL

+$41.64

Record

37%

913-1562 (2475)

balthazar

Invested

$120.7

Value

$80.42

PnL

+$26.57

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$89.84

Value

$80.06

PnL

+$53.17

Record

60%

18915-12738 (31653)

Istaroth

Invested

$274.34

Value

$75.69

PnL

-$12.33

Record

13%

603-4221 (4824)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$51.56

Value

$51.56

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$38.38

Value

$27.56

PnL

-$10.82

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.61

Value

$22.31

PnL

+$1.7

Record

26%

2319-6715 (9034)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$20.66

Value

$20.66

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$28.09

Value

$17.7

PnL

-$0.69

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.11

Value

$15.51

PnL

-$6.6

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$15.06

Value

$11.62

PnL

-$3.44

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$2.5

Record

62%

697-436 (1133)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$8.68

Value

$8.18

PnL

-$0.5

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$0.46

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$0.34

Record

35%

1022-1939 (2961)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.32

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$0.02

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.39

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$0.77

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$42.18

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$0.62

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

17 of 18 top traders (94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.