Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on November 8?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $235 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$235.45
$1.61
98.9¢ → 99.8¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $56.84 | $188.44 | +$0.89 | 50% 9314-9358 (18672) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $42.11 | $41.92 | +$0.68 | 57% 24661-18268 (42929) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $5.05 | $5.09 | +$0.04 | 30% 2852-6533 (9385) |
Invested
$56.84
Value
$188.44
PnL
+$0.89
Record
50%
9314-9358 (18672)
Invested
$42.11
Value
$41.92
PnL
+$0.68
Record
57%
24661-18268 (42929)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5.09
PnL
+$0.04
Record
30%
2852-6533 (9385)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.