Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on November 8?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 14¢ · $83 held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$82.87
-$3.94
Research grade
AvoidYes at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $80 | $79.96 | +$0.04 | 97% 59583-1863 (61446) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.7¢ | $0.71 | $2.9 | -$1.09 | 15% 4978-29143 (34121) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.45 | $0.01 | -$2.44 | 50% 9314-9358 (18672) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 35% 1117-2064 (3181) |
Invested
$80
Value
$79.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
97%
59583-1863 (61446)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.71
Value
$2.9
PnL
-$1.09
Record
15%
4978-29143 (34121)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.44
Record
50%
9314-9358 (18672)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
35%
1117-2064 (3181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.