Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on November 8?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 77¢ · $305 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$304.55
-$2.02
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $300 | $299.85 | +$0.15 | 97% 59583-1863 (61446) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.7¢ | $0.71 | $4.7 | -$1.09 | 15% 4978-29143 (34121) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.64 | $0 | -$0.63 | 50% 9314-9358 (18672) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 35% 1117-2064 (3181) |
Invested
$300
Value
$299.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
97%
59583-1863 (61446)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.71
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$1.09
Record
15%
4978-29143 (34121)
Invested
$0.64
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.63
Record
50%
9314-9358 (18672)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
35%
1117-2064 (3181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.