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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on November 8?

Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0

Combined PnL

-$39.78

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares446
Combined PnL-$39.78
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 80%No — 20%
0X
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$19.91

Record

50%

9328-9390 (18718)

GR
graynotebook19CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$10.2

Value

—

PnL

-$10.2

Record

55%

25558-21177 (46735)

QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$7

Value

—

PnL

-$7

Record

47%

47428-53893 (101321)

2B9SCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

—

PnL

-$1.1

Record

15%

4994-29324 (34318)

LU
luciebotCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

—

PnL

-$1.13

Record

22%

3414-11955 (15369)

AN
anothercoinCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

—

PnL

-$0.45

Record

35%

1158-2115 (3273)

balthazarCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35457-83867 (119324)

LucerysCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18536-24186 (42722)

SM
smallreceipt<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

16720-20376 (37096)

MI
mildwindow27<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

24093-24636 (48729)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xbc72436d...5b8bde
Slug
highest-temperature-in-mexico-city-on-november-8-2026-16c

Traders in this Market

0X

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

CTR

Yes — $0

-$19.91
GR

graynotebook19

CTR

Yes — $0

-$10.2
QW

qwen300.fund

CTR

Yes — $0

-$7

2B9S

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1.1
LU

luciebot

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1.13
AN

anothercoin

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.45

balthazar

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0

Lucerys

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0
SM

smallreceipt

No — $0

+$0
MI

mildwindow27

No — $0

+$0
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