Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on November 15?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $463 held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$462.68

Combined PnL

$211.89

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 99.7¢

+93% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$462.41

Total Shares472

Combined PnL+$227

No5 traders

Total Value$0.26

Total Shares87

Combined PnL-$15.11

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 44.3¢	$172.09	$378.92	+$206.83	54% 1126-978 (2104)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 97.6¢	$38.24	$39.06	+$0.82	58% 919-668 (1587)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 97.6¢	$25.3	$25.85	+$0.54	47% 944-1058 (2002)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 46.9¢	$17.84	$16.7	+$8.65	43% 855-1149 (2004)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 48.9¢	$5.98	$1.89	+$10.16	40% 2691-4022 (6713)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$4.8	$0.12	-$4.68	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 0.3¢	$0.06	$0.06	+$0	52% 1000-941 (1941)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 52.1¢	$8.85	$0.05	-$8.8	53% 2407-2143 (4550)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 0.3¢	$0.02	$0.02	+$0	48% 1303-1431 (2734)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 32.9¢	$1.65	$0.02	-$1.63	40% 282-421 (703)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$172.09

Value

$378.92

PnL

+$206.83

Record

54%

1126-978 (2104)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.24

Value

$39.06

PnL

+$0.82

Record

58%

919-668 (1587)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.3

Value

$25.85

PnL

+$0.54

Record

47%

944-1058 (2002)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.84

Value

$16.7

PnL

+$8.65

Record

43%

855-1149 (2004)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.98

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$10.16

Record

40%

2691-4022 (6713)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$4.68

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1000-941 (1941)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.8

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1303-1431 (2734)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.63

Record

40%

282-421 (703)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.