Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C or higher on November 12?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $121 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$120.97
-$72.17
96.7¢ → 98.6¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $42.96 | $43.52 | +$0.55 | 35% 414-754 (1168) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $41.6 | $41.14 | -$0.46 | 99% 675-8 (683) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $19.5 | $19.34 | -$0.16 | 53% 6091-5453 (11544) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $6.84 | $6.9 | +$0.06 | 18% 83-367 (450) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $4.8 | $4.84 | +$0.04 | 29% 893-2183 (3076) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $39.78 | $2.63 | -$37.15 | 58% 1038-744 (1782) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $37.61 | $2.48 | -$35.12 | 63% 2143-1256 (3399) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.06 | $0.13 | +$0.07 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
Invested
$42.96
Value
$43.52
PnL
+$0.55
Record
35%
414-754 (1168)
Invested
$41.6
Value
$41.14
PnL
-$0.46
Record
99%
675-8 (683)
Invested
$19.5
Value
$19.34
PnL
-$0.16
Record
53%
6091-5453 (11544)
Invested
$6.84
Value
$6.9
PnL
+$0.06
Record
18%
83-367 (450)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$0.04
Record
29%
893-2183 (3076)
Invested
$39.78
Value
$2.63
PnL
-$37.15
Record
58%
1038-744 (1782)
Invested
$37.61
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$35.12
Record
63%
2143-1256 (3399)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.13
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.