Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on November 12?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 83¢ · $166 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$166.16
-$1.96
81.3¢ → 83¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $45.07 | $45.03 | -$0.03 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $40.9 | $40 | -$0.9 | 31% 276-616 (892) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 81.5¢ | $37.51 | $36.8 | -$0.71 | 68% 2062-951 (3013) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $16.2 | $16 | -$0.2 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $14.58 | $14.22 | -$0.36 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $5.57 | $5.71 | +$0.14 | 29% 881-2138 (3019) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4.4 | $4.4 | +$0 | 80% 550-134 (684) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $4 | +$0.1 | 16% 63-330 (393) |
Invested
$45.07
Value
$45.03
PnL
-$0.03
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$40.9
Value
$40
PnL
-$0.9
Record
31%
276-616 (892)
Invested
$37.51
Value
$36.8
PnL
-$0.71
Record
68%
2062-951 (3013)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$16
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$14.58
Value
$14.22
PnL
-$0.36
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
Invested
$5.57
Value
$5.71
PnL
+$0.14
Record
29%
881-2138 (3019)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.4
PnL
+$0
Record
80%
550-134 (684)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$4
PnL
+$0.1
Record
16%
63-330 (393)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.