Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 69¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$162.57
$10.83
62.1¢ → 68.5¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $116.76 | $124.9 | +$8.14 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 61.2¢ | $15.92 | $18.07 | +$2.15 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $12.4 | $12.74 | +$0.34 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $3 | $3.23 | +$0.24 | 80% 558-142 (700) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $3.18 | -$0.17 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $0.31 | $0.45 | +$0.14 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
Invested
$116.76
Value
$124.9
PnL
+$8.14
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
Invested
$15.92
Value
$18.07
PnL
+$2.15
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
Invested
$12.4
Value
$12.74
PnL
+$0.34
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
Invested
$3
Value
$3.23
PnL
+$0.24
Record
80%
558-142 (700)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.18
PnL
-$0.17
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$0.31
Value
$0.45
PnL
+$0.14
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.