Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 77¢ · $643 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$643.05
$20.68
72.2¢ → 76.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 72¢ | $385.33 | $409.55 | +$24.22 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
HE hello.67ARB<$100 | Noavg 75.7¢ | $161 | $134.69 | -$7.31 | 68% 2062-950 (3012) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75.7¢ | $77.4 | $78.23 | +$0.13 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.6¢ | $63.9 | $56.46 | -$7.44 | |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $58.13 | $54.02 | -$4.11 | 31% 264-600 (864) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $29.06 | $29.53 | +$0.48 | 81% 535-125 (660) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $9.52 | $9.29 | -$0.23 | 23% 84-282 (366) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72.9¢ | $5.65 | $5.98 | +$0.33 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
Invested
$385.33
Value
$409.55
PnL
+$24.22
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$161
Value
$134.69
PnL
-$7.31
Record
68%
2062-950 (3012)
Both legs:
Invested
$58.13
Value
$54.02
PnL
-$4.11
Record
31%
264-600 (864)
Invested
$29.06
Value
$29.53
PnL
+$0.48
Record
81%
535-125 (660)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.29
PnL
-$0.23
Record
23%
84-282 (366)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$5.98
PnL
+$0.33
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.