Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on November 12?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 88¢ · $169 held · ends Nov 12

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$168.83

Combined PnL

$3.08

Smart Money Entry

85.8¢ → 88¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$128.75

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$1.76

Yes4 traders

Total Value$40.08

Total Shares289

Combined PnL+$1.32

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 84.4¢	$102.01	$105.73	+$3.72	59% 1019-705 (1724)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$21.65	$23.43	+$1.78	68% 2063-953 (3016)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91¢	$18.2	$16.96	-$1.24	53% 5656-5081 (10737)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$7.6	$7.8	+$0.2	31% 285-621 (906)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.4¢	$6.81	$6.61	-$0.2	80% 558-142 (700)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 95¢	$6.78	$6.06	-$0.73	17% 76-374 (450)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$11.19	$2.23	-$0.46	54% 553-469 (1022)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$102.01

Value

$105.73

PnL

+$3.72

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.65

Value

$23.43

PnL

+$1.78

Record

68%

2063-953 (3016)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$16.96

PnL

-$1.24

Record

53%

5656-5081 (10737)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

31%

285-621 (906)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.81

Value

$6.61

PnL

-$0.2

Record

80%

558-142 (700)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$6.78

Value

$6.06

PnL

-$0.73

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.19

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.46

Record

54%

553-469 (1022)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.