Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 55¢ · $97 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$97.47
$8.44
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 53.2¢ | $66.75 | $75.24 | +$8.49 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 55.1¢ | $5.96 | $6.49 | +$0.53 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 59.2¢ | $5.1 | $5.17 | +$0.07 | 53% 346-302 (648) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 59.4¢ | $5.38 | $4.96 | -$0.43 | 25% 834-2479 (3313) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $3.63 | $3.31 | -$0.32 | 83% 489-98 (587) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 57.4¢ | $2.2 | $2.3 | +$0.1 | 29% 2568-6178 (8746) |
Invested
$66.75
Value
$75.24
PnL
+$8.49
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$5.96
Value
$6.49
PnL
+$0.53
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.17
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
346-302 (648)
Invested
$5.38
Value
$4.96
PnL
-$0.43
Record
25%
834-2479 (3313)
Invested
$3.63
Value
$3.31
PnL
-$0.32
Record
83%
489-98 (587)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
29%
2568-6178 (8746)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.