Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on November 11?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 48¢ · $266 held · ends Nov 11

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$265.7

Combined PnL

$13.62

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$116.01

Total Shares211

Combined PnL+$13.59

No3 traders

Total Value$17.48

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 40.7¢	$121.86	$132.21	+$10.35	30% 256-590 (846)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.7¢	$69.67	$81.76	+$12.09
└ No leg	Noavg 52.2¢	$52.19	$50.45	-$1.74
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.4¢	$49.68	$57.43	+$7.75	59% 1019-705 (1724)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.2¢	$50.23	$55.92	+$5.69	68% 2062-949 (3011)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 49.4¢	$9.88	$10.09	+$0.21	37% 3136-5367 (8503)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$5.69	$5.46	-$0.23	53% 5575-4959 (10534)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.1¢	$2.51	$2.66	+$0.15	81% 525-121 (646)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 49.2¢	$1.88	$1.93	+$0.05	30% 2654-6198 (8852)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$121.86

Value

$132.21

PnL

+$10.35

Record

30%

256-590 (846)

Both legs:

Yes$69.6740.7¢+$12.09

No$52.1952.2¢-$1.74

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.68

Value

$57.43

PnL

+$7.75

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.23

Value

$55.92

PnL

+$5.69

Record

68%

2062-949 (3011)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$9.88

Value

$10.09

PnL

+$0.21

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$5.69

Value

$5.46

PnL

-$0.23

Record

53%

5575-4959 (10534)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.51

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0.15

Record

81%

525-121 (646)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.05

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.9%

47.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$100.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

200.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.