Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on November 11?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 84¢ · $56 held · ends Nov 11

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$56.06

Combined PnL

-$0.56

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$45.66

Total Shares54

Combined PnL-$2.76

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.4

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$2.2

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 89¢	$17.8	$16.8	-$1	37% 3136-5367 (8503)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93¢	$10.06	$9.09	-$0.97	53% 5575-4959 (10534)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90¢	$8.53	$7.96	-$0.57	54% 445-377 (822)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 84¢	$7.61	$7.61	-$0	20% 61-241 (302)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$5.2	$6.4	+$1.2	68% 2062-949 (3011)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$4.41	$4.19	-$0.22	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$3	$4	+$1	30% 256-590 (846)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$17.8

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$1

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.06

Value

$9.09

PnL

-$0.97

Record

53%

5575-4959 (10534)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.53

Value

$7.96

PnL

-$0.57

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$7.61

Value

$7.61

PnL

-$0

Record

20%

61-241 (302)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$1.2

Record

68%

2062-949 (3011)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.41

Value

$4.19

PnL

-$0.22

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$1

Record

30%

256-590 (846)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.