Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on November 11?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $77 held · ends Nov 11

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$77.24

Combined PnL

-$0.69

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$77.24

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$0.69

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$33.86	$34.04	+$0.18	54% 445-377 (822)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$19.58	$19.22	-$0.36	37% 3136-5367 (8503)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$10.67	$10.4	-$0.27	53% 5575-4959 (10534)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$8.87	$8.71	-$0.16	22% 78-279 (357)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$4.94	$4.87	-$0.07	30% 2654-6198 (8852)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.86

Value

$34.04

PnL

+$0.18

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$19.58

Value

$19.22

PnL

-$0.36

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.67

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

5575-4959 (10534)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$8.87

Value

$8.71

PnL

-$0.16

Record

22%

78-279 (357)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$0.07

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.