Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 81¢ · $402 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$402.14
$21.13
76.4¢ → 81¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 77¢ | $347.72 | $364.11 | +$16.39 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $13.4 | $16 | +$2.6 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $8.54 | $8.71 | +$0.18 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $6.71 | $8 | +$1.29 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $8.28 | $5.32 | +$0.68 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$347.72
Value
$364.11
PnL
+$16.39
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$13.4
Value
$16
PnL
+$2.6
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$8.54
Value
$8.71
PnL
+$0.18
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$8
PnL
+$1.29
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$8.28
Value
$5.32
PnL
+$0.68
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.