Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on November 1?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 54¢ · $524 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$524.46
$234
32.7¢ → 54¢
+65% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $264.7 | $465.21 | +$226.36 | 50% 670-669 (1339) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 48.3¢ | $44.95 | $53.91 | +$8.96 | 50% 1900-1871 (3771) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 49.1¢ | $25.63 | $5.35 | -$1.32 | 18% 364-1606 (1970) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.