Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.3K
$54.92
64.3¢ → 62¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 64.7¢ | $646.98 | $629.7 | -$52.26 | 21% 300-1148 (1448) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $331.3 | $440.66 | +$109.36 | 51% 626-610 (1236) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 62.6¢ | $170.37 | $170.21 | -$0.16 | 56% 372-296 (668) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $21 | $20 | -$2 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $2.84 | $2.82 | -$0.02 | 53% 6484-5687 (12171) |
IstarothInvested
$646.98
Value
$629.7
PnL
-$52.26
Record
21%
300-1148 (1448)
Invested
$331.3
Value
$440.66
PnL
+$109.36
Record
51%
626-610 (1236)
Invested
$170.37
Value
$170.21
PnL
-$0.16
Record
56%
372-296 (668)
Invested
$21
Value
$20
PnL
-$2
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
Invested
$2.84
Value
$2.82
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
6484-5687 (12171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.